Budget
- The government creates a budget yearly that outlines their revenue and how they plan to spend money.
- Budget deficit: government spending > government revenue
- Budget surplus: government spending < government revenue
- Balanced budget: government spending = government revenue
- A government budget deficit is paid for through borrowed money, which means the government takes on debt.
- A budget surplus can be used to pay previous debts.
Debt to GDP Ratio
- Government debt is the accumulation of government budget deficits
- Debts can become problematic, and the longer it takes to pay them, the more they cost due to interest payments.
- This is why it is important to be able to measure what amount of government debt is healthy to avoid accumulating too much debt.
- To measure the sustainability of government debt, the debt-to-GDP ratio is used.
- Debt-to-GDP ratio = Debt/GDP
- A higher ratio means it will be more difficult to pay off debts.
- A recommended Debt to GDp ratio is 0.6, or 60%.
- Even this ratio is quite high, and many countries have much more than this ratio.
Cost of High Government Debt
Interest Costs
- As debt-to-GDP ratio increases, more money must be paid to creditors to cover the interest.
- Debt-servicing is the repayment of principal/interest on debt owed.
Credit Ratings
- Countries have a credit rating similar to an individual's credit score.
- The rating represents an assessment of how likely a government is able to repay its debt.
- Countries with lower scores are less likely to be able to borrow money, as the lender is uncertain as to if it'll be paid back.
Impact on Future Government Spending
- A government that must pay its debts is unable to use that money to promote economic growth by spending on education, healthcare or infrastructure.
Methods to Know if Debt is Sustainable
- Some countries repay their debt back regularly, while others struggle to service their debts.
- Factors that indicate the sustainability of debt:
- Political stability
- Composition of debt: loan duration, loan provider
- Vulnerability of economy: level of development, dominant sector (primary, secondary, tertiary, quaternary)